G4 57 · FSD → LAS

took off 3:52 PM CT · landed 4:34 PM PT (scheduled 1:42 PM CT → 2:43 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 567 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at FSD that day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling543 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.48 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 57 · FSD → LAS

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAS?