Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
GOJET · FLIGHT G7 4538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
G7 4538 · IAD → CMH
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 18%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.