Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

KLM · FLIGHT KL 635 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

KL 635 · AMS → LAS

departs 4:55 PM CET · arrives 8:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

AMS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KL 635 · AMS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?