Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

LOT · FLIGHT LO 16 LANDED 12:44 PM CET, ~9 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

LO 16 · EWR → WAW

took off 12:12 AM ET · landed 12:44 PM CET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 23h after departure

Arrive at WAW more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

WAW (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LO 16 · EWR → WAW

Odds over time