Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
MQ 3869 · DFW → ORF
departs 7:18 AM CT · arrives 11:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.