Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4258
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
MQ 4258 · AMA → DFW
departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 8:56 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29 32%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AMA that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
7am departures from AMA are usually not late
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.39 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.