OO 4104 · SEA → BZN

took off 12:45 PM PT · landed 3:06 PM MT (scheduled 12:38 PM PT → 3:28 PM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BZN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BZN that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ BZN usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

BZN (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4104 · SEA → BZN

Odds over time

How late did it get to BZN?