OZ 221 · JFK → ICN

took off 12:01 PM ET · expected to land 2:31 PM KST (scheduled 11:48 AM ET → 4:33 PM KST)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ICN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ICN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ ICN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ICN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OZ 221 · JFK → ICN

Odds over time

How late will it get to ICN?