Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2121
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 2121 · YTZ → EWR
departs 6:45 AM EDT · arrives 8:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 5%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YTZ
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
EWR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.