Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2725
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 2725 · YTZ → IAD
departs 1:40 PM EDT · arrives 3:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YTZ
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YTZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
IAD (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.