Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 2726 · IAD → YTZ
departs 3:50 PM ET · arrives 5:30 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Arrivals into YTZ at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.