Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 512 · FLL → YOW
departs 11:35 AM ET · arrives 3:39 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Sat 10/31 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at YOW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YOW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at YOW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to YOW?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt forecast at FLL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
11am departures from FLL are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YOW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
FLL (origin)
Gusts 39 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
YOW (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.