Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 615 · YYZ → BOS
departs 7:25 AM EDT · arrives 9:08 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 16h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ
↑
7am departures from YYZ are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.