Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 616 · BOS → YYZ
departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 12:24 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9am departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.