Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PHILIPPINE AIRLINES · FLIGHT PR 105
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Today
PR 105 · SFO → MNL
departs 12:47 AM PT · arrives 5:44 AM PST
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 19h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MNL?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Arrivals into MNL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MNL (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.