Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 557 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

QK 557 · YEG → SFO

departs 10:05 AM MDT · arrives 12:21 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 10am departures from YEG are usually not late

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

YEG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 557 · YEG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?