Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 9985 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

QX 9985 · PHX → SMF

departs 11:12 AM MT · arrives 1:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ QX's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 9985 · PHX → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?