Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 289
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
TK 289 · IST → SFO
departs 7:52 AM +03 · arrives 11:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 22h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Thu 10/29 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SFO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.