Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1054 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

UA 1054 · EWR → CUN

departs 10:43 AM ET · arrives 1:57 PM EST

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CUN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CUN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1054 · EWR → CUN

Odds over time

How late will it get to CUN?