UA 1096 · IAH → SJO

took off 9:50 AM CT · landed 12:02 PM CST (scheduled 9:33 AM CT → 12:13 PM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SJO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into SJO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1096 · IAH → SJO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SJO?