Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Today

UA 1164 · SFO → LAX

departs 10:20 AM PT · arrives 11:50 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1164 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?