Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Today

UA 1469 · SFO → DEN

departs 8:55 AM PT · arrives 12:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1469 · SFO → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?