UA 1811 · ORD → SFO

took off 1:47 PM CT · landed 4:07 PM PT (scheduled 1:30 PM CT → 3:57 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1811 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?