UA 1986 · SFO → OGG

took off 10:51 AM PT · landed 12:53 PM HT (scheduled 10:22 AM PT → 1:01 PM HT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1986 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?