Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2189 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

UA 2189 · ORD → LGA

departs 1:00 PM CT · arrives 4:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2189 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?