Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2625 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

UA 2625 · DEN → SAT

departs 9:35 AM MT · arrives 12:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.37 in

SAT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2625 · DEN → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?