Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 342 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

UA 342 · ORD → SFO

departs 8:38 AM CT · arrives 11:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 342 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?