Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3901 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Today

UA 3901 · HNL → SFO

departs 12:10 AM HT · arrives 8:22 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 17h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3901 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?