UA 518 · IAH → XPL

took off 9:45 AM CT · landed 11:05 AM CST (scheduled 9:29 AM CT → 11:28 AM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at XPL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to XPL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from IAH are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Arrivals into XPL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XPL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 518 · IAH → XPL

Odds over time

How late did it get to XPL?