UA 878 · HKG → SFO

departs 10:30 PM HKT · arrives 7:18 PM PT

Your aircraft is N2846U (B77W), coming in as UA 869 from SFO: landed 6:08 PM HKT.

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG

Weather at each end

HKG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 878 · HKG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?