UA 888 · SFO → PEK

took off 3:00 PM PT · expected to land 7:46 PM CST (scheduled 12:04 PM PT → 5:27 PM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at PEK more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PEK?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SFO that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PEK (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 888 · SFO → PEK

Odds over time

How late will it get to PEK?