Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

VIRGIN ATLANTIC · FLIGHT VS 153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

VS 153 · LHR → JFK

departs 3:50 PM GMT · arrives 8:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

VS 153 · LHR → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?