WN 1151 · OAK → SEA

took off 12:54 PM PT · landed 2:41 PM PT (scheduled 12:26 PM PT → 2:29 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1151 · OAK → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?