Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1841 LANDED 12:43 AM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Today

WN 1841 · LAS → FAT

took off 12:03 AM PT · landed 12:43 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1841 · LAS → FAT

Odds over time