WN 1843 · SMF → LAX

took off 6:11 AM PT · landed 7:09 AM PT (scheduled 5:59 AM PT → 7:30 AM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from SMF are usually not late

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1843 · SMF → LAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAX?