Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 285 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

WN 285 · AUS → BWI

took off 6:19 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:15 PM CT → 9:34 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 285 · AUS → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?