Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3045 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

WN 3045 · MKE → BWI

took off 7:45 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:44 PM CT → 9:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from MKE are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MKE that day

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3045 · MKE → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?