WN 3161 · OAK → DEN

took off 8:30 AM PT · landed 11:32 AM MT (scheduled 8:09 AM PT → 11:44 AM MT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ OAK is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3161 · OAK → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?