WN 498 · BWI → AUS

took off 10:33 AM ET · landed 12:28 PM CT (scheduled 9:43 AM ET → 12:22 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 498 · BWI → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?