Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5026 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

WN 5026 · BUF → LAS

departs 1:50 PM ET · arrives 3:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5026 · BUF → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?