Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Monday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 509 LANDED 12:39 AM CT, ~63 MIN EARLY

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

WN 509 · MCO → STL

took off 11:40 PM ET · landed 12:39 AM CT (scheduled 12:07 AM ET → 1:47 AM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 23h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ 12am departures from MCO are often late

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 509 · MCO → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?