Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8506 LANDED 2:56 AM MT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Today

WN 8506 · PAE → PHX

took off 12:24 AM PT · landed 2:56 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 8506 · PAE → PHX

Odds over time