Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8516
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Today
WN 8516 · SFO → LAS
departs 12:38 AM PT · arrives 2:02 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 19h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.