tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 3997 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

YV 3997 · BDL → IAD

departs 2:58 PM ET · arrives 4:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
17% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.6d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to IAD?

  1. On time or early
    82%
  2. 15–30 min late
    6%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    5%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.