Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3548
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
YX 3548 · IAD → PWM
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:07 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.