Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
YX 3630 · YHZ → EWR
departs 7:00 AM ADT · arrives 8:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 17h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 5%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
YHZ is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
YHZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
EWR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.