Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
YX 5829 · BOS → EWR
departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 44%
Fri 10/30 60%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.