YX 5851 · BOS → BWI

left the gate 9:25 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 9:43 PM ET → 11:27 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N208JQ (E75S), coming in as YX 5640 from IND: landed 7:58 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5851 · BOS → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?