Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AVIANCA ECUADOR · FLIGHT 2K 7395
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
2K 7395 · JFK → GYE
departs 5:06 AM ET · arrives 10:35 AM -05
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 12%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 13 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.