Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 2609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
5D 2609 · DTW → QRO
departs 8:52 AM ET · arrives 11:15 AM CST
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 13%
Mon 11/2 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at QRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to QRO?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at QRO
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
QRO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.